The rise of the iPhone 4S dictates that the iPhone 5 release date won’t be in 2011. Not on new favorite son Sprint. Not on uneasy recent partner Verizon. And not on old frenemy AT&T. But rest easy, it won’t be in 2012 either. The fate of the iPhone 5 now comes down to Apple’s strategy as much as whatever manufacturing or component issues which held it up in the first place, as Tim Cook and the company must not only contend with the passing of Steve Jobs a mere one day after the 4S unveiling, but also the fact that it can’t very well turn around and launch the iPhone 5 a few weeks from now even if it is ready; backlash from 4S buyers would off the charts. So while Apple hasn’t said a word about the iPhone 5 or even so much as spoken the words “iPhone 5″ at any point, here’s a look at what logic, circumstance, and common sense dictate are the practical iPhone 5 release date scenarios. Listed by date, and handicapped by the odds of each happening:
January whiplash: This sees the iPhone 5 ready to go by January and, realizing that the iPhone 4S didn’t overwhelm anyone and opting to waste no time, holds a press event in mid January and gives the iPhone 5 a late January release date. Those who skipped the 4S will be thrilled, those who bought it in October will be more than a little ticked that their new iPhone just became obsolete three months later, particularly in light of stringent cell carrier upgrade pricing schemes. The iPhone 4S would also stick around as a bargain model, and would see a price cut of at least $100 as of the iPhone 5 arrival, leaving 4S buyers feeling not just disappointed but ripped off. This “too soon” scenario seems unlikely unless backlash against the 4S is really bad…
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